Who am I and why should you listen to me?
My name is Bojan Sinkovic and I am team leader and one of the co-founders of OddsBoss. As an industry insider with over 10 years of international experience, I have amassed invaluable insights from the highly successful bettors who earn a living with sports betting. The knowledge I'm about to share with you is the result of the last 3 years of my life where I have been testing various strategies and tracking results to see what can I expect with different approaches.
- I wish I knew then what I know now
- Pick selection
- Betting vs. Gambling
- OB3 Strategy
- A Word of Advice
My betting venture started 15 years ago as a fun hobby. I have always loved sports. Football, tennis, basketball, handball, Formula 1… You name it; I was a fan of it. Around that time the betting industry experienced exponential growth in my native Croatia, and people started betting like crazy. My first bets were merely a weekend activity that made the games more interesting, but the prospect of making money was very alluring. Watch sports, analyze a bit and bet and make money. I would join my friends, and we would go through the list trying to figure out who would win by analyzing statistics and trying to copy more "experienced” bettors who overwhelmed us with their almost mythical stories of large winnings.
But, we would mostly bet on either strong favorites, well known big name teams that attract all the highlights, or teams we supported. The most common justification was "they are a better team and need the win in this game", a strategy that is juvenile in hindsight.
I kept losing money and came to the conclusion that I had no luck! Sure, wins would come here and there, but I really had no clue how much money was spent on betting and how much profit I made (now I’m certain that I lost far more money than I won). What I didn't know at the time is that bookmakers are great at anticipating human behaviors. To say that I was manipulated might sound like I was being cheated, but the reality of the situation was that my ignorance was being exploited. I finally realized I didn’t really understand the world of sports betting.
Then something life changing happened. A job opened at a local bookmaker, I applied - and got the job! It was like a dream come true. Little did I realize how it would revolutionize my life and more specifically my view of sports betting. Little by little, I learned from my more experienced colleagues – professional sports traders. It wasn’t easy to adapt to the reality surrounding me. I was stubborn, determined to make my own way through sports betting. And it cost me – time, money and nerves.
I didn’t know "the rules of the game”, how the odds are calculated, how bookmaker thinks and most importantly how to make a profit in the long run. I played “the game” with my heart, not with my mind. What I realized is that there is no “get rich overnight” formula. No one gets rich overnight. If you start looking at the odds in a different way, a way that understands the system from the inside, you will soon realize that sports betting doesn't have to be gambling, it can be a form of investing. With the knowledge I have gained, I'm now 100% convinced this is the truth. The only thing you need to have is education about a proven winning strategy and proper pick selection.
Through many years of gathering experience in an intense betting market, I raised my betting knowledge and understanding to a new level, the level of a professional trader from inside the betting industry. It has become clear to me that most players place bets using their “gut feeling” or choosing the favorite or popular teams. Even players using statistical analysis couldn't make a consistent profit in the long term.
That is because the world of sports betting takes advantage of human nature and those of us who work from within the industry, know that. Each and every bookmaker exploits the lack of knowledge and understanding of a typical sports bettor. If the majority of sports bettors took the time to learn, educate themselves and change the way they view sports betting, they would stop losing money.
What good is all statistics?
At first look, the need for successful selection seems self-evident because forming opinion based on optimism has an equal chance of being wrong and being right. It would be natural to expect that like the majority of people you are betting with your heart. You are betting on the outcome that you wish to see happen. The question is:
What are the prospects of you doing this successfully?
For most sports bettors choosing your own picks is not necessary, in fact, it’s not even advisable. A majority of them realize that they are not as good as they thought. The luckiest ones realize that early on, while the less fortunate ones realize that after they have already lost too much money. A very small percentage of people can excel in making their own picks, everyone else would be better off getting help ideally from a professional handicapper. Determining the real value bets presents an interesting problem for sport bettors, and it will have serious implications on the end result of the project and yet the majority of sports bettors don't even know what value bets are.
To carry this discussion to a logical extreme, the entire meaning of value bets can be summarized in one main principle that stands behind Kelly Criterion:
Do not place a bet unless you have a positive edge.
Thought process based not on optimism, but on calculated risk. Thought process that rests on the possibility that it's possible to earn money in sports betting with a systematic approach that gives you a positive edge. This approach to betting offers gradual progress but significant change is happening with your betting bank in the long run. In our opinion, the outcomes of the future events are unknown, but there is no reason not to believe that our carefully selected value picks in the future should be a less reliable guide than the picks we made in the past. However, for average sports bettor, the danger lies precisely here. The outcome is never known. If he overestimates the odds or his ability to correctly identify value bets is not that great, it doesn’t matter how much money he is about to invest because he will lose money in the long run.
Losing some money in the short run is an inevitable part of sports betting and there is nothing you can do to prevent it.
Losing money, in the long run, is something you can prevent.
The risk exists within ourselves. Some of our picks are sometimes deceptively attractive. Usually, those are the moments when you choose picks with your heart. What we are proposing to you is to form a conclusion from the facts, and if you know that your judgment is sound, you should act on it. Stay away from the games where you have a little to gain and much to lose. You are not right or wrong if you agree with the experts, you are right because your data analysis and reasoning are right.
Obviously, all that we have said thus far is easier said than done, but what we are referring to if you choose to use your own picks, be serious about it. If you want to make money in sports betting, let people who already have that skill teach you how to bet for long term profits.
Our betting approach may seem to be not suitable for beginner sports bettor, who by definition is an amateur. Our approach is most beneficial to active and casual sports bettors who want to earn side income in sports betting. But regardless if you are amateur or semi-pro, if you bet like this you can earn money in sports betting in the long run. Proper bankroll management, value bets, and discipline can take you very far.
"When you think about betting on sports, there really is far better information about your local sports team than there is about any local business in your market. The local papers cover the team every day. The local TV station gives a report about every game. There are radio stations who cover them for hours at a time. That’s far more information than you get about Tyco or Computer Associates or NFI. In sports, when someone does something wrong, they pretty much tell you the next day or two. Someone suspended - You know it. Someone hurt – They report it and do a better job of policing that than any industry watch group. And stats? My goodness. There is no comparison. You can tape everything and create your own stats, which I’m sure every “smart money” gambler does. There are public play-by-plays of every game. There are websites that analyze every which way from Sunday every action and inaction of every player in the game."
"How efficient can a market be when the majority of investors expect to lose money? The sports books know this. They know the difference between smart and stupid money. They set odds in order to attract as much emotional, stupid money as it possibly can. It also knows that this emotional money will skew the odds and bring in the “smart money.” As a result, they have learned to lay off their investments so that they are just taking their cut off the dollars invested rather than trying to outsmart the smart. To me, this suggests the smart money is better than just good. It’s very good."
Marc Cuban, Dallas Mavericks owner
A word about gambling
According to Gamblers Anonymous, their definition of gambling is:
"GAMBLING, for the compulsive gambler, is defined as follows: Any betting or wagering, for self or others, whether for money or not, no matter how slight or insignificant, where the outcome is uncertain or depends upon chance or 'skill' constitutes gambling."
Now, just by looking at the definition of gambling, almost every person who places a sports bet can be classified as a gambler. We say almost, because if you place a sure bet, you don't need to worry about the uncertainty of the outcome. You will get paid regardless who wins.
However, on the same note, if you can't control yourself you might have a serious problem. Sports betting isn't for everyone. If you lack discipline, you won't be able to earn long term profit.
Our point of view on sports betting and gambling
Sports betting isn't for everyone and majority of the people keep losing money in the long run. If you know what you are doing and how to bet it can be very rewarding as well. We won't go into too many details here because each and every person has a responsibility to know themselves, but we believe that solid strategy and carefully selected value picks can make you profit in sports betting in the long run.
Please take a look at the link below and read a little bit more about gambling and see for yourself where you stand when it comes to gambling.
One disclaimer here:
For people who feel that they have a compulsive gambling problem, they should seriously reconsider joining Gamblers Anonymous and not participate in sports betting at all.
Is OB3 strategy bulletproof and does it guarantee results?
No. But it gives you a real chance of winning in the long run. For me, sports betting is a form of investing. Not gambling; it's not a game decided by good or bad luck. In its essence, sports betting is very similar to investing by a stock broker where daily he makes decisions about when to buy, when to sell and at what price. Looking at betting from this angle is the only way to start changing your approach and gradually making profit. Now, if long term profit is not your goal, save yourself some time and stop reading this. As a matter a fact, please read our section about gambling. It may give some clarity to the point I'm trying to make here.
After some years of working within the sports betting industry, I understand how it works and how to make a profit in the long run. I used my experience to develop sports betting strategy and my team, consists of people who are passionate about sports betting - people who want to help you evolve your mindset about what sports betting can be. It's not just fun to make the game more enjoyable, even though is seems like that. It's about creating side income from sports betting. When we founded OddsBoss, our goal was to educate people on how to take advantage of this incredible $60 billion market by sharing with you OB3 strategy, Tippboss and the knowledge we have amassed over the years. If you don't know how to bet, you can have great picks, but you can still lose your money.
So let me teach you this - set your priorities:
1. Set your goal (target profit)
2. Set a reasonable time span to reach your goal (6 months maximum to double your bank)
3. Decide what your bank is (TippBoss assumes that average sports bettor has $1,000 bank to start)
4. Determine your daily betting strategy (see OB3 strategy section)
The only way to sustain long term profitability in sports betting, is by creating a systematic approach for placing sports wagers that give you an actual advantage.
Three major components of any successful system are bankroll management, discipline and value bets (line shopping, data research, etc.). In short, the system will work if you can consistently identify the odds that have a positive expectancy value. If you have advanced knowledge of sports betting, you are familiar with Kelly Criterion and the main principle behind it that says not to bet at all unless you have a positive edge. Your approach to sports betting shouldn't be any different. If you treat it as an investment and carefully follow instructions that we teach, and if you place the bets only when it's in your best interest, then you will be making a profit in the long run.
This form of sports betting is not for everyone. It's carefully thought out purposeful betting. It's not random betting where you place bets whenever you feel like it. However, if you want to make your investment grow in sport's betting, this system will teach you how to do it.
Regardless of how much money you have, you should only bet according to what the OB3 system tells you to bet.
If you want get better at anything, get all the education you can get. If you are not confident about this approach to sports betting, we highly recommend you to test this strategy with picks only and no real money down, you can make mistakes without incurring any actual losses. You can learn to develop the discipline by avoiding over betting. You can compare results you are about to have with other strategies that you have been using thus far and learn what works for you. Tracking all your picks will prevent you from forgetting that some of your hunches tend not to be so correct after all. That will force you to learn a valuable lessons without losing any real money. If you end up not liking this experiment or if your picks weren’t good, no harm done. Selecting your own picks may not be for you.
To illustrate my point, please read this excerpt from the book - The Intelligent Investor Rev Ed. - by Benjamin Graham
“It doesn’t matter what you own or what the market does, ultimately financial risk resides not in what kind of investments you have, but in what kind of investor you are.
If you want to know what risk really is, go to the nearest bathroom and step up to the mirror. That’s risk, gazing back at you from the glass."